IT has been a while since I shared my political musings with you, dear reader. I must apologise; I was up and down, traversing the expanse of our beautiful country and having conversations with real people — no offence to you, my faceless readers.
I had decided to mind my own business, but political developments of the month would not let me be.
One of those developments emanated from the National Youth Day celebrations in Masvingo, where Zanu PF youth chanted a new slogan to the effect that President Emmerson Mnangagwa will still be in power in 2030.
Experience has taught us that when the Zanu PF Youth League behaves in such a manner in succession politics, there is a puppeteer pulling the strings.
The youth league flies the kite
The Zanu PF youth league has been used in the past as the cat’s paw in factional and successionist politics. Remember Kudzai Chipanga, the former leader of the youth league, who once challenged ‘all those in military fatigue who wish to engage in politics to throw their hats in the ring and not hide behind the barrel of the gun’.
It later turned out he was not even the author of that statement; he was just a mouthpiece. The youth league had been traversing the country, organising Presidential youth interface rallies, which became the main campaign platform for the G40 faction.
If the youth league chants a slogan for a third-term bid for Mnangagwa, you may be sure they did not coin it. They are being used to fly the kite to see how people will react, especially those in Zanu PF. Whether there is a strong intention to pursue the third term remains to be seen as the kite continues to fly.
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What must be pointed out at this point is President Mnangagwa himself has not made any pronouncements regarding a third-term ambition.
On the contrary, he is on record saying he will respect the constitutional term limits and will step down after two terms. Of course, as Jonathan Moyo would say, political statements are not timeless like biblical statements.
Politicians necessarily change as new developments emerge. While it is true that he has not made such pronouncements, it is also true that he has not dismissed those who make such a proposition in his name. And that is an important caveat.
A number of political pundits have already engaged with the subject from a political strategy perspective and from a constitutional perspective. Quite some compelling analyses on the subject matter have piqued my intellect.
Not to belabour the points raised already, I will pivot to focus more on the political logic of the move as well as the possibilities and pitfalls in that path.
Untenable proposition
In a manner of speaking, to make a third-term omelette, one has to break some political eggs. There is no other way around that, and the proponents of this are probably aware of the pot holes on the road to 2030.
The third-term proposition is already brewing internal elite discord in Zanu PF. Succession has always been a difficult and taboo conversation within the party. Hence, the silence of those who are averse to the third-term proposition must not be interpreted as consent. The factionalisation stage has accelerated in the party, with factions lining up to succeed the president, already burning the midnight candle.
To ask them to demobilise and defer their ambitions for the top job is a difficult pill to swallow.
My village folk say, “Tebula vula whuku yalobwa nedzu!” (Throw away the boiled water; the chicken meant for slaughter has been taken by a hawk.)
That is what the pro-third-term faction is asking other factions to do. It is not an easy ask. Even at lower levels, the majority of Zanu PF members are not happy with the proposition, but their protest is only some whispers here and murmurs there because it is political suicide to voice dissent openly. Internally, it is an untenable proposition in Zanu PF and will not enjoy popular support.
There are constitutional guardrails
The Constitution also has strong guardrails against term limit extensions, well explained by Mlondolozi Ndlovu in his column. Section 91(2) of the Constitution disqualifies the election of president or vice-president beyond two terms. This section is what third-termists will have to amend.
But there are several caveats. A bill to amend the Constitution must be passed by a two-thirds majority of the National Assembly and the Senate to become law. Further, such an amendment cannot benefit the incumbent or his predecessors in that public office.
This means this proviso will also have to be amended to enable the current president to benefit from amendments to the term limits. But this cannot be done as an omnibus bill like what happened with Constitutional Amendment number two.
Third term extension and the amendment for the incumbent to benefit from this extension will have to be passed as separate constitutional bills. This is doable.
The last hurdle
But the last hurdle to clear is Section 328(5), which states that an incumbent cannot benefit from a term limit extension.
For that to happen, the amendment will have to be taken to a public referendum where all registered voters have an opportunity to make their choice via secret ballot. This will be impossible to achieve. Looking at the results of the past election, Zanu PF cleared the threshold to win the presidency by just 2,6%.
To swim against the tide to win the referendum would be nearly impossible, considering a significant number of Zanu PF members will also be against the removal of term limits. Clearly, the drafters of the Constitution had every intention to disincentivise the removal or extension of term limits. Our experience with former President Robert Mugabe was good enough a lesson for 37 years in the classroom.
There have been allegations of manipulation of election results in the past. This would be an interesting curveball in the mix, but I would not go down that rabbit hole in my analysis. It is a black box of allegations, facts, conjecture, truth, and disinformation. It is just a dog’s breakfast. A breakfast that remains on the kitchen table still.
Political logic
Clearly, the path toward the third term is littered with many political and constitutional hurdles, making it a herculean task. One must, therefore, look at why the proponents are pursuing this exercise, which may be futile.
One explanation proffered by Pride Mkono, a keen political strategist is that Mnangagwa could be eyeing to extend his stay as party leader of Zanu PF and not necessarily of government.
That way, he consolidates power in the party to influence government succession. Ruling by proxy, so to speak. This is a difficult feat to achieve but doable with a malleable successor, who does not have a political base of their own.
Related to this, it could be Mnangagwa’s interest to delay successionist politics in Zanu PF and government to enable him to focus on his five-year mandate.
Incumbents in their last terms of office often become politically weak and lose influence as they are clearly on their way out. This affects their ability to deliver as factional politics take centre stage. This is also a critical term where a president would want to build their legacy, usually through a signature project.
But if the party and government are preoccupied with successionist factional politics, all this cannot be achieved. As such, the third-term rhetoric could be a dummy aimed at reigning in the party and government to focus on delivery while he has no intention of extending his presidency. Putting a lid on the pot of brewing successionist politics until close to 2028.
The lack of a clear successor is also a strong motive for the incumbent to want to extend their presidency. It is also a strong motivator for power brokers in the party to seek the extension of the incumbent’s term of office to avert the disaster of a weaker successor who would struggle to hold the party together.
Here, Mugabe’s argument that he does not see a befitting successor could be resurrected from the mausoleum to bolster calls for the continued stay of the incumbent.
It can also be the incumbent's motive to indeed go through with the third term pursuit to safeguard his interests from a successor who might otherwise be vindictive against the predecessor.
We have seen this in recent years in South Africa, Botswana, Zambia etc where relations between the incumbents and their predecessors are acerbic.
Never say never
Of course, the litany of hurdles and pitfalls along the path to a third term does not mean that it cannot be achieved. I must state, dear reader, that if the interests of third-termists converge with those of the military, then the first hurdle will have been cleared. The military has always been a power broker in Zanu PF.
This extends to succession in government as the generals refer to themselves as the stockholders of the constitution of the country. From the Mgagao Declaration that ousted Ndabaningi Sithole to the 2017 transition that ousted Mugabe, the military has always played a key role in settling succession disputes in the party.
Political adventurism
The current administration has also been known not to shy away from controversial political and constitutional initiatives. Constitutional Amendment No. 2 provides an unambiguous precedence of pushing the boundaries of constitutionalism.
The case of Chief Justice Luke Malaba’s term of office extension sets a clear
example and could have been a testing of the waters for what was to come. The current ruling elite in Zanu PF has always seemed to have the fire of political adventurism in their bellies since the Tsholotsho Declaration of 2004.
In addition, at the moment, there is no strong countering faction in Zanu PF to check the proponents of a third term. This is coupled with a lack of a strong enough potential successor around which to rally around for a pushback.
While Zanu PF leaders and supporters are not exactly Orwellian sheep who always bleat, ‘Napoleon is always right,’ it is true that should it come to that, they will toe the line - even while sulking. This is because dissent is political suicide in ZANU PF.
The opposition is focused on scavenging.
It is clear that short of stopping the third term bid at the referendum, other Zanu PF leaders and supporters cannot do much to stop this move if it gathers momentum. This will mean the opposition is the cavalry – the last line of defence, so to speak. But the opposition is fractured, battered, and leaderless. It is more concerned with scavenging on the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) carrion, unable to mount a serious challenge to such a move should it materialise.
To aggravate the situation, various factions of the opposition are in the pockets of various factions of the ruling party; hence, they can only be as effective as the faction they are backing. This is fodder for another day, dear reader.
Separation of powers?
One would think that this is exactly where the doctrine of separation of powers comes in to save the day by checking the executive's political adventurism. However, the judiciary is already in tandem with the executive on many issues. How can it not be when the incumbent chief justice benefited from a similar constitutional amendment that extended his term of office?
On the other hand, Parliament is a rubber stamp for the executive; it is weak and unable to provide checks and balances, and it would be no different on this matter. Indeed, there are a significant number of opposition MPs in the Parliament, including the fact that ZANU PF has no two-thirds majority because of how the Senate is constituted.
But the opposition has malleable MPs with a price tag on their back. In fact, most of them are at the mercy of self-imposed Interim Secretary General Sengezo Tshabangu, who is mostly viewed as doing the bidding for Zanu PF to accelerate its interests of a two-thirds majority.
Sober view
In the end, the third term ball is in the Zanu PF court. There are many hurdles to achieving it, both internally in the party and externally. Some of them are political, while some are constitutional. Be that as it may, if President Mnangagwa really wants a third term and the Zanu PF power brokers are agreeable, then President Mnangagwa will get a third term.
Only Zanu PF can resist the third-term push, and they can only succeed in pushing back if power brokers in the military are averse to the idea. If the idea is to benefit the incumbent, then there is still hope at the plebiscite.
For now, we continue to observe the kite that has been flown by the youth league.
This is my sober view; I take no prisoners.
This is my sober view; I take no prisoners.
- Dumani is an independent political analyst. He writes in his personal capacity. Twitter - @NtandoDumani
