A RECENT report by the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute (ZDI) suggests that the military will play a critical role in shaping the ongoing succession battles within Zanu PF, further undermining the country’s democratic processes.
Titled Who is the Elephant in the Room? The Warrior Tradition, The Military, and the Party, the report highlights the entrenched influence of Zimbabwe’s securocrats in the country’s political transitions, emphasising that their role cannot be ignored.
“The topic on the role of the military in the politics of transition in Zimbabwe, therefore, stands as one of the most pressing issues in Zimbabwe’s public discourse,” the report reads.
“Firstly, the military has been a decisive factor in Zimbabwe’s political transitions.
“This influence has been particularly emphatic and glaring in the power transitions within the ruling Zanu PF party, from the pre-independence period to the present day.
“Therefore, the question of militarisation in public affairs needs to be dissected…”
The report traces the military’s influence back to the liberation struggle, where key military figures within Zanu and Zapu played pivotal roles in determining party leadership.
This influence culminated in the 1975 Mgagao Declaration, when military leaders in Zanu’s armed wing, Zanla, propelled Robert Mugabe to the helm, effectively ousting Ndabaningi Sithole in what many regarded as a coup. Mugabe, who had been Zanu’s secretary-general, went on to dominate Zimbabwe’s political landscape for 37 years following Independence in 1980.
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The ZDI report comes as President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s loyalists within Zanu PF and the government are rallying support for him to extend his rule until 2030, despite his second and final term being set to end in 2028. Although Mnangagwa has publicly stated his intention to abide by the constitution, military figures have signalled that the Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA) will ensure Zanu PF remains in power indefinitely.
ZNA Commander Lieutenant General Anslem Sanyatwe recently stirred controversy by telling a Zanu PF gathering that the military would implement a “command voting” operation to secure the party’s dominance. Despite widespread condemnation for meddling in civilian politics, Sanyatwe has not retracted his statement.
The resurgence of military involvement in Zimbabwe’s politics echoes the late ZDF commander Vitalis Zvinavashe’s 2002 declaration that the country’s securocrats would not pledge allegiance to anyone lacking liberation credentials.
Zvinavashe’s statement came in response to the rise of a formidable opposition led by the late Morgan Tsvangirai.
Political analyst Reuben Mbofana agrees that the military will continue to play a decisive role in Zimbabwe’s fluid political landscape.
“The military is a key determinant in Zanu PF's succession battles. This is the case because the military establishment practically controls the power dynamics within the party,” he averred.
“The military has usurped the powers of the people in determining who leads the party, and by extension, the president of Zimbabwe.
“We saw the same playing out in November 2017, when Mugabe was forced to step down by the military, with current President Emmerson Mnangagwa effectively imposed on the party and nation. As such, the next president of both Zanu PF and Zimbabwe will be determined by the military.”
The growing influence of Zimbabwe’s military coincides with a wave of coups sweeping across Africa, particularly in West Africa, where countries like Niger, Mali, Sudan, and Burkina Faso have experienced military takeovers since 2020.
Stephen Chan, a professor at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London, noted that the military’s involvement in civilian governance is inherently undemocratic
“It is a given in liberal democratic countries that the military should not participate in any formal way in civilian constitutional politics. No one elected the military,” he observed.
“But there has always been a military presence in Zimbabwean policy making.
“President Mnangagwa was effectively put in place by the military. So, nothing new is happening. But there is nothing democratic about this involvement.”
Last year, Mnangagwa was forced to rescind his appointment of ZDF commander Valerio Sibanda to Zanu PF’s politburo, highlighting the military’s pervasive influence in civilian politics. Sections 208 and 211 of the constitution prohibit members of the security services from participating in political party activities or holding office in parties.
Had the illegal appointment been upheld, Sibanda would have gained the right to attend Zanu PF politburo meetings, further blurring the line between the military and civilian governance.
Zimbabwe cannot afford to ignore the military’s role in shaping its political future, as the consequences of such entanglement threaten the very foundations of democracy in the country.
