MUCH has been written about the shifting geopolitical landscape unfolding across the globe.
These changes have been triggered by multiple factors, chief among them the way the Western world has historically treated other regions and the assertive responses of emerging economies to these entrenched patterns of power.
Now, with Donald Trump back in office as US President, his policies appear to have accelerated global transformations already in motion. In the 100 days of his second presidency, Trump’s decisions have sparked widespread concern. Some Americans have even called this period the most disastrous start to any presidency in US history.
Ordinarily, domestic developments in the United States should not be of paramount concern to far-flung nations. But in this tightly interwoven global economy, where the US and its Western allies have long shaped international trade, partnerships and finance, decisions made in Washington reverberate worldwide. In such a system, American policy shifts carry real and immediate consequences for developing countries.
Change, of course, brings both risk and opportunity. The pressing question today is whether Trump’s tariff regime represents a curse or a blessing for developing nations, particularly in Africa. Should African countries sit back and wait for global changes to fully unfold or proactively seek new trading arrangements and strategic realignments?
This is not a peripheral issue. It ought to be at the forefront of discussions within the African Union and its regional economic communities. And yet, so far, there is a deafening silence, an absence of co-ordinated response at a moment that demands bold thinking and decisive action.
Trump’s tariffs, most notably those targeting China, unleashed retaliatory measures and triggered global market instability. This volatility had a chilling effect on African exporters, especially in commodity-dependent economies, as global demand weakened.
Although Africa is not a direct participant in the US-China trade war, it suffered collateral damage. In response to US tariffs, China redirected surplus goods to African markets, flooding them with cheap imports that undercut local industries and eroded domestic production.
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However, this experience need not be a tale of victimhood. It offers critical lessons African countries can act on. By recognising the dangers of overexposure to external shocks and unregulated imports, governments have an opportunity to reassess trade policies, protect strategic sectors and invest in domestic manufacturing.
With the right policies, tariff safeguards, local procurement mandates and industrial support, Africa can reverse the damage and build more resilient economies. The trade tensions also dampened investor confidence. Foreign direct investment, a vital source of capital, declined, particularly in textiles, agriculture and mining. Meanwhile, Trump's "America First" doctrine weakened the credibility of multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organisation, which many African nations depend on to protect their interests.
Renowned economist Jeffrey Sachs has been especially critical of Trump’s tariff policies, describing them as “childish and dangerous.” He warned they could lead to a loss of up to US$10 trillion in global wealth, destabilising economies and weakening the foundations of multilateral co-operation.
According to Sachs, the tariffs stem from a flawed understanding of trade deficits. He contends that deficits reflect America's chronic overspending, not foreign exploitation. Protectionist policies like these, he argues, fail to fix economic imbalances and risk triggering wider conflict in an already fragile global order.
Yet amid the turmoil, opportunities quietly emerged. US tariffs created temporary openings for certain African countries to step into disrupted global supply chains, especially in agriculture, textiles and light manufacturing. While gains are uneven, they signal the latent potential of African industries when given space to grow.
More importantly, the disruption revealed Africa’s vulnerability to external shocks and overreliance on foreign markets. It served as a wake-up call, galvanising momentum behind regional integration. The experience injected urgency into implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area, reinforcing the need to boost intra-African trade and regional value chains.
In response, some African policymakers began exploring a more strategic, multipolar approach to global diplomacy, one that enhances the continent’s bargaining power in an increasingly fragmented world. Rather than aligning too closely with any bloc, African countries have a chance to negotiate agreements better aligned with their development priorities.
This pragmatic repositioning could help extract greater value from partnerships while safeguarding sovereignty. If approached thoughtfully, African governments could adopt a form of measured protectionism, not as isolationism, but as a developmental strategy. By imposing selective tariffs and regulatory safeguards, they can shield nascent industries, foster local manufacturing and lay the foundation for a robust, long-term industrial policy.
While Trump’s tariffs have largely harmed developing nations by destabilising markets and deterring investment, they also exposed Africa’s economic vulnerabilities, offering a rare and yet vital opportunity for reform. If African leaders act decisively, this disruption could spark a shift towards greater self-reliance, regional trade integration and long-term economic sovereignty.
