On March 3, 2025, the United States dropped an economic bombshell: a 20% tariff on Chinese imports, reigniting trade tensions between the world’s two economic titans.
Announced by President Donald Trump, this move has jolted markets, rattled supply chains, and left investors — from Wall Street to Harare — scrambling to assess the fallout.
As someone who’s spent years dissecting market moves, I’ve unpacked this development in my latest Streetwise Economics YouTube video).
This article dives into the economic ripple effects on the US and China, what it means for Zimbabwean investors in American markets, and key considerations for traders globally. Spoiler: it’s a bumpy road ahead, but there’s a signal in the noise.
A Global market shockwave
The tariffs aren’t just a bilateral spat — they’re a seismic shift in global trade. Trevor Tombe, a Canadian economist whose work I have leaned on for context, calls tariffs “a double-edged sword.”
They might shield US industries like steel or tech hardware, but they also jack up costs and invite retaliation.
The US equities market felt the heat instantly. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 1.22% and 0.35% respectively — loaded with tech giants reliant on Chinese parts — stumbled as trading opened on March 4.
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China’s CSI 300 index wasn’t far behind, shedding value as export fears mounted before hovering at 3,897.78 points, 0.32% up at the time of writing.
In my video, I flagged the sectors most at risk: technology, manufacturing, and agriculture. Think semiconductors from Shenzhen or soybeans from Iowa — these are the frontlines of this trade war. Volatility spiked, and investors turned skittish.
For Zimbabweans with stakes in US ETFs or stocks, and global traders eyeing both markets, this isn’t a drill—it’s a live stress test.
The US side: Winners, losers, and Higher Bills
For Americans, the tariffs are a classic trade-off. Domestic producers — say, a steel mill in Pittsburgh — get a leg up as Chinese imports become pricier.
The idea is to nudge consumers toward “Made in the USA.” But here’s the catch: those costs don’t vanish.
Shoppers at Walmart or Best Buy will see higher tags on everything from TVs to sneakers. Businesses, too, are sweating it.
Manufacturers sourcing components from China face a profit squeeze unless they pass costs along or eat the hit.
Tombe’s analysis, which I cited in my Substack piece (read it here: https://tinyurl.com/ypvxz993, warns of a net negative. China retaliated — as it did in 2018 with tariffs on US farm goods — exporters like Midwestern farmers could take a beating.
In my video, I stressed the risk of a broader slowdown if this escalates. It’s not panic time, but it’s not business as usual either.
China’s economic bruise
Across the Pacific, China’s feeling the pinch. The US is a top export market, soaking up $3,58 trillion in Chinese goods annually as per Statistica 2024 data.
A 20% tariff slashes that edge. GDP hit China in the near term could not be far worse as that of canada and Mexico that mostly trade with the US.
However, potentially worse if Beijing fires back with its more levies triggering a trade war. That’s no small shake for an economy already juggling sluggish demand and a debt pile.
Source: Statistica
Chinese factories might pivot to other markets, but that takes time. Meanwhile, firms like Huawei or textile makers could see a sales crater. The ripple effect? Slower growth in Asia-Pacific, a region Zimbabwean exporters — like those in mining or tobacco — rely on indirectly. It’s a stark reminder: when giants clash, smaller economies feel the tremors.
Zimbabwean investors: Risks and opportunities
For Zimbabweans invested in the US, this is personal. Many here hold S&P 500 ETFs, tech stocks, or dollar-based assets to hedge against local inflation.
The tariffs shake that playbook. Volatility could mean bargains — say, a dip in Apple or Tesla shares — but it also spells risk. A prolonged trade war might tank returns if US growth stalls.
My advice in the video? Watch the vulnerable spots. Tech’s a minefield right now — think twice before doubling down on Nvidia or Tesla or any other stock.
Manufacturing’s dicey too; firms like Caterpillar could get squeezed by cost hikes. But there’s upside if you’re nimble. Defensive stocks — utilities, healthcare — might hold steady.
Diversification’s your shield. Don’t put all your US dollars eggs in one basket, and keep some cash handy for when the dust settles.
Global traders: Navigating the storm
For traders straddling U.S. and Chinese markets, this is a high-stakes game. Volatility Is your frenemy—great for day traders, brutal for the buy-and-hold crowd.
Sector impacts are sharp: Tech and industrials face headwinds, while US energy or consumer staples might dodge the worst.
China’s export-heavy stocks—like Alibaba or BYD—could lag until trade flows stabilise.
In my video, I hammered home the basics: know your fundamentals. A company with no debt and strong cash flow—like a US utility or a Chinese domestic retailer—can weather this better than a leveraged importer. Risk management’s non-negotiable.
Set stop-losses, trim exposure to tariff-hit sectors, and don’t chase momentum blind. Education’s your edge—stay ahead of the news, not behind it.
Policy analysis matrix: Who’s up, who’s down?
Let’s cut through the clutter with a policy matrix—short-term and long-term winners and losers:
Stakeholders Short-Term Impact Long-Term Impact
Winners
U.S. Producers Less competition, higher demand for local goods Market share gains if they innovate fast
U.S. Government Tariff cash boosts coffers—think infrastructure or tax cuts Steady revenue if tensions hold, but political heat rises
Losers
Consumers (U.S.) Pricier goods shrink budgets Fewer options if local supply lags
Chinese Exporters U.S. sales drop as tariffs bite Growth stalls unless new markets open
Global Supply Chains Delays and cost spikes disrupt flow Inefficiency lingers if trade stays fractured
Economic Growth Uncertainty slows trade and investment Stagnation risk if this drags into 2026
The takeaway? Short-term wins for some U.S. firms come at a cost—literally—for everyone else. Long term, it’s a race to adapt or fade.
What’s next: Stay sharp, Stay informed
These tariffs aren’t a blip—they’re a pivot. U.S. producers might catch a breather, but consumers, Chinese exporters, and global growth are in the crosshairs.
For Zimbabwean investors, it’s about balancing risk and reward in a jittery market. Globally, traders need to play defense while eyeing openings.
My portfolio’s leaning on resilient names—S&P ETFs and debt-free stocks—but that’s my lens, not yours.
Want more? My YouTube video https://rb.gy/m1kum3 breaks it down with charts and real talk. My Substack piece : https://tinyurl.com/ypvxz993 digs deeper into the numbers. For tailored takes, book a 1:1 at www.streetwiseeconomics.com—I’m here to help you navigate this mess. Till next time, trade and invest wisely and may the markets be on your side!
*Isaac Jonas is a Zimbabwean-Canadian economist and principal consultant at Streetwise Economics. He is also a retail investor, retail trader and content creator, focusing mainly on the US and Canadian capital markets. He regularly shares insights via his social media handles and YouTube Channel (Streetwise Economics). His website is www.streetwiseeconomics.com and can be reachable on isacjonasi@gmail.com. Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only—not investment advice. Markets are personal; what works for me might not for you. Consult a financial advisor before acting. Let’s keep learning and adapting—together.
