Climate change poses significant challenges for countries in the Global South, impacting various aspects of their societies, economies, and environments. The Global South faces heightened vulnerabilities due to multiple factors, including geographical location, socio-economic conditions, and limited adaptive capacities. There are some key considerations regarding climate change and its impact on the Global South.
The Global South is more susceptible to extreme weather events such as hurricanes, cyclones, floods, droughts, and heatwaves. These events can result in widespread damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and human settlements. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns can affect crop yields and food security in the Global South. Variability in weather conditions can lead to reduced agricultural productivity, significantly impacting the livelihoods of communities that heavily depend on agriculture. Climate change exacerbates water scarcity in many regions of the Global South, impacting access to clean water for drinking, agriculture, and industrial processes. Coastal areas in the Global South are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels, resulting in increased risks of flooding, saltwater intrusion, and displacement of local communities.
Climate change contributes to the spread of vector-borne diseases, heat-related illnesses, and other health risks. Vulnerable populations in the Global South may face increased health burdens due to these climate induced impacts. Climate change threatens biodiversity (a significant strength of the Global South), affecting ecosystems and the species that inhabit them. This can have cascading effects on ecosystem services and the well-being of communities in the Global South that rely on natural resources.
Climate-induced events, such as extreme weather events and sea-level rise, can lead to displacement and migration. Vulnerable communities in the Global South may face challenges in adapting to new environments and securing livelihoods.
Climate change can undermine economic development efforts in the Global South by affecting key sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, and tourism. The cost of adapting to climate change and recovering from climate related disasters can strain national budgets.
Limited financial resources, technological capacities, and institutional capabilities can hinder the ability of countries in the Global South to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change. These emerging and least industrialised economies are disproportionately affected by climate, yet they have contributed the least to the crisis.
The Global South is a victim of transboundary pollution, whereas the Global North has emitted and continues to emit deleterious greenhouse gases to emerging and less industrialised countries. Indeed, the Global North created and continues to exacerbate the climate crisis. Yes, adaptation funds and mitigation resources are promised by the Global North to the Global South, but are rarely received. In addition to financial resources, the Global South must develop the absorptive capacity and technical capabilities necessary to utilise these funds for adaptation and mitigation.
The Global South must emphasise the principles of climate justice, arguing that historical emissions from industrialised nations have contributed significantly to climate change. Developing nations seek support from developed countries in terms of financing, technology transfer, and capacity building to address climate challenges. International efforts, such as the Paris Agreement, aim to address climate change collectively and promote global cooperation. However, additional support is recognised as needed to assist the Global South in building resilience, adapting to changing conditions, and transitioning towards sustainable and low-carbon development pathways. Climate change is a complex and interconnected challenge. Addressing its impacts on the Global South requires collaborative and equitable solutions on a global scale.
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To mitigate the global climate crisis, there have been calls for a just transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. This refers to the process of shifting from a carbon-intensive, fossil fuel-based economy to a more sustainable, low-carbon economy in a way that is equitable and fair to all stakeholders. The concept emphasises minimising negative social and economic impacts, particularly for workers, communities, and industries that rely on fossil fuels, while ensuring that the benefits of renewable energy are shared widely and inclusively. Some of the principles of a just transition include inclusive and equitable transition, climate justice and social equity, creating green jobs, and sustainable economic growth. Components of a just transition include policy support, social dialogue, economic diversification, environmental advantages and public health benefits.
Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable or green energy sources presents significant challenges. In regions, mainly in the Global South, heavily reliant on fossil fuel industries, the transition may lead to job losses, decreased tax revenues, and economic hardship if not properly planned and implemented. Some fossil fuel-dependent industries and regions may resist the transition due to concerns about economic losses or potential shifts in political power. Emerging and least industrialised countries (the Global South) may face difficulties accessing renewable technologies and financial resources to implement just transition strategies. There is a need for a fair and inclusive energy transition to a green economy that considers the history of the climate crisis, the unique challenges faced by different regions of the world, and their respective priorities.
Furthermore, the economies of most countries in the Global South, particularly those in Africa, are still defined and characterised by the legacy of colonialism — a system designed for extraction and abuse, not for inclusive development, sustainable growth or economic transformation.
Achieving a just energy transition in that neocolonial context is difficult. Socio-political and economic systems in many emerging and least industrialised countries must be economically and structurally decolonised before any meaningful decarbonisation can be attempted.
Specifically, the Global South must disregard any patronising prescriptions from the Global North on the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable and green sources.
The energy priorities between the two categories of countries are different. The number one issue for the Global South is energy poverty. The task is to increase access to energy, in particular electricity, for more people in these developing countries.
The electrical energy per capita must dramatically increase in the Global South. So, yes to a just and equitable transition to clean energy, but on the terms determined by the Global South. Nobody else. If to eradicate energy poverty, citizens of these economies must burn fossil fuels for a couple more decades, so be it. The Global South must have agency with respect to the widely touted just transition.
Of course, and ideally, it would be fortuitous if energy poverty could be eradicated using clean and renewable sources. The Global South must have this as part of its strategic intent.
Given that the most harmful effects of climate change are already hitting the Global South the hardest, there is a need for a strategic balance between burning fossil fuels to raise the electrical energy per capita and avoiding a runaway level of accelerated effects of climate change in these emerging and least industrialised economies. However, the call is for the Global South to make.
Countries in the Global North have demonstrated a double standard regarding their commitment to the much-touted energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
The Russia-Ukraine war disrupted the energy supply from Russia to Europe and posed an existential threat to Europe. What did the Europeans do? They abandoned any pretence of adhering to the energy transition and doubled their energy production using coal-fired power plants.
How shameful. The Russian-Ukrainian war exposed the hypocrisy of the Global North and the primacy of geopolitics over global agreements. The Europeans saw an existential threat and unashamedly embraced fossil fuels! “There is danger; let us have more coal, not less!” The global climate change agenda was thrown out the window. Sad.
Anyway, at a cynical level, the European response confirms the correctness of the Global South's response to the energy crisis and climate change. Existential matters take precedence over the gospel of the energy transition! Energy poverty is a life-or-death challenge in the Global South. It is just as debilitating as general poverty. Energy security is just as essential as food security. General poverty, energy poverty and food insecurity are existential matters for emerging and least industrialised countries. The citizens of the Global South will resolve them by any and all means necessary, even if it means slowing down the energy transition. In the Global South, coal is about livelihoods, jobs, energy security, and the existence of towns.
In South Africa, 10 towns are solely dependent on coal. Yes, there will be a just and equitable transition to clean energy in the Global South, but on its terms. Period.
With this Global South approach to the Just Energy Transition, what is the impact of Artificial Intelligence (with its high energy demand)?
The AI revolution presents both challenges and solutions to the Just Energy Transition. Indeed, it is a double-edged sword.
This is an excerpt from the book “Artificial Intelligence: A Driver of Inclusive Development and Shared Prosperity for the Global South.”
Prof Mutambara is the director and full professor of the Institute for the Future of Knowledge (IFK) at the University of Johannesburg in South Africa.
