IT has been a while since I shared my musings about political developments in our beloved nation.
Frankly, there was not much to write about. I had some of you my dear readers prodding — or rather nagging me to write an analysis on war veteran Blessed Geza’s rants.
Of course, I did not oblige. The only time I addressed the matter was in January, where I indicated that his faction was either bold or desperate, it turns out it was naïve.
Some thought the promised Geza revolution was big politics, but for this writer, it was clear that he was all sound and fury signifying nothing. The revolution that was promised to descend with a bang, actually faltered in a whimper. The same fate befell the promised return of the fabled “passenger 34” (Saviour Kasukuwere) during the 2023 elections.
But I digress. While we are still on that subject, the chairperson of Kasukuwere’s presidential campaign committee, Walter Mzembi is back in the country — also with a whimper. I will address this and its salient points in a moment, but before I do that, let me take a moment to chide the gods of war.
The gods of war must be crazy
In Kalanga culture, the gods can go mad at times and need a little chiding from our elders. It is common practice that during a violent storm, the patriarch or the matriarch of the household would step outside of the hut, face the gods directly and chide them.
The elder would curse them and tell them to be ashamed for scaring innocent children through their violence.
- Zanu PF congress: Fireworks expected
- Kasukuwere says unmoved by arrest threats
- Letter from America: Kasukuwere: A false storm!
- ‘New land laws biggest heist’
Keep Reading
It is the same for ancestors. When misfortune or illness continues to befall the family, the elders will go to the graves of their forebearers and chide them for failing to protect and give blessings to their children.
That when they lament, “ndzimu weluhabahaba unoletja bana kukabonegwa mubali” (ancestors who are weaklings abandon children to become examples for bad omens). In Bukalanga, the gods, and, indeed, ancestors are not beyond reproach.
We have, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, witnessed a growing penchant for war with Israel and Hamas have a go at it, and now Israel has attacked Iran in what it calls a pre-emptive strike to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Israel claims that country was moments away from possessing one.
Transacting war in civilian currency
I do not care much for big egos of senile old men comparing the size and potency of their penile shaped missiles.
The problem is when it targets civilians. Innocent civilians, including women and children have become the currency through which these wars are transacted.
The death toll in Gaza is appalling, civilians killed — in fact murdered — at humanitarian aid sites! In the latest episode of this gratuitous violence between Israel and Iran, again civilians are already paying the price.
The gods of war have gone crazy. Someone must chide them!
Reading into Mzembi’s gamble
Back to my subject for this week. The former minister of Tourism and Hospitality, who also served as the last Foreign Affairs minister under the late former president Robert Mugabe, Mzembi is back. This is after a self-imposed exile in Eswatini, South Africa and recently, Zambia since the ouster of Mugabe.
He was immediately hauled before the courts by the Zimbabwe Anti-Corruption Commission as he had a pending warrant of arrest after skipping court in 2018, where he is charged with corruption.
Some have speculated that his warrant of arrest might be cancelled and his charges might be quashed in yet the latest episode of “catch-and-release”, which has become the norm for most cases involving political elites.
Prime examples include former ministers, Ignatius Chombo, Prisca Mupfumira and Obadiah Moyo.
Speculation is rife, but time will tell.
Storm in a tea cup
Some excitable political commentators think Mzembi’s return is a deal brokered by some senior Zanu PF elites and might be part of a grand strategy to strengthen Mnangagwa’s 2030 bid by bringing into the fold his erstwhile G40 rivals.
This is amid internal factional recalibration in Zanu PF as successionists continue to burn the midnight candle. This thinking makes for good political soundbites. It makes for a good reading. But my stubborn analysis does not find much political logic in this assertion.
His return is clearly a lone move. It has all the markings of desperation from the good former minister of Foreign Affairs.
As President Emmerson Mnangagwa himself once quipped: “If you leave Zanu PF, you shrivel”, and Jonathan Moyo once said it’s cold out there.
This is a reference to the patronage system that Zanu PF runs, where its elites benefit from the trappings of proximity to power, including corruptly so. It would seem the cold winter has finally bludgeoned the good former minister into submission.
No political deal
This writer my not have the intimate details of this new development but what is clear is that there is not political deal here. If indeed it was expedient to build an alliance or coalition with G40 elements by either of the rival factions in Zanu PF, Mzembi would not be the linkman for that.
While I admired him during his tenure as Minister of Tourism, where he displayed flair for administrative competence, when speaking political acumen, he is not cut from the same cloth as Kasukuwere and Jonathan Moyo. I think I am being diplomatic dear reader, and that is not my style.
What I am struggling to put politely dear reader is: Mzembi is a political midget, no offence to the midgets. As such, he poses no real threat to the regime or the ruling faction.
And neither is he a political asset. He commands no base, represents no movement, and adds no gravitas to the regime. He does not add much value to anyone in Zanu PF, as such, his return cannot surely be based on some grand — or even bland political strategy. Sorry to burst the bubble for you my excitable reader. Since we have mentioned the 2030 campaign, let me pivot to it for a moment.
2030 gambit
It is political naiveté to believe that the 2030 campaign is about 2030. The ruling faction of Zanu PF and, indeed, the First Secretary himself cannot invest such huge financial resources, squander so much political capital, take such big political risks and in the process offend many powerful foes and allies to amend the constitution just to afford himself only two more years in power.
That defies political logic.
Of course, coining it as an ambition just up to 2030 is a deceptive political communication strategy to give feeble political minds a seemingly smaller bite they can swallow — even bitterly so.
But the mooted constitutional amendments — which are sure to come — will ensure the term are limits or removed or terms extended maybe to seven years each like in Rwanda for instance.
In my musings early on when this campaign first emerged, I counselled that if Mnangagwa really wants a third term and the Zanu PF power brokers are agreeable, then he will get a third term.
While there were rumours of disquiet in the military about the 2030 ambitions, Mnangagwa applied Mobuto Sese Seko’s “dizzy worm syndrome” to the securocrats in the past two years, which has effectively neutralised that centre of power.
Brace yourself dear reader, just as the sun will set today and rise tomorrow, 2030 is coming. Whether with a bang or a whimper that remains to be seen!
Sober view
Mzembi has returned to the political front pages, but let us not overstate the significance of this development. There is not much to write home about.
It is not part of political gamesmanship. The man has resigned himself to whatever fate the ruling political elite will subject him to.
Of course, he would hope for reprieve from his charges, which one might argue were politically-motivated from the onset as Zacc was weaponised against political opponents.
Be that as it may, his return does not mean much politically. Zimbabweans will not get any reprieve from the gruelling economic and political malaise they are facing.
This is my sober view: I take no prisoners.
- Dumani is an independent political analyst. He writes in his personal capacity.
