ZIMBABWE’S mining industry, the cornerstone of its export earnings, is on track for modest but tangible growth this year, but the long-standing structural weaknesses, including unreliable power supply, currency volatility and softening global commodity prices, continue to cast a long shadow over its prospects.
The government projections, as outlined in the 2025 National Budget Statement, place the sector’s growth at a targeted 6%.
But even as production across key minerals shows signs of resilience, industry leaders caution that progress is precariously balanced on structural reforms that have yet to deliver meaningful change.
Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe chief executive officer Isaac Kwesu told NewsDay Weekender that various challenges continue to pose risks to the sector.
“The major downside risks are power supply, exchange rate volatility and depressed prices for some key minerals,” he said.
“Barring these risks, the industry is expected to realise the 6% growth as announced in the 2025 National Budget Statement.”
This cautious optimism comes as output in platinum group metals (PGMs), lithium and gold begins to stabilise after a difficult 2024 marked by energy constraints and declining investor confidence.
Sector insiders report that toll processing capacity for PGMs is expected to improve gradually in the second half of the year — a key factor in unlocking delayed exports and shoring up foreign currency earnings.
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Zimbabwe’s energy crisis continues to paralyse operations across the mining belt, with prolonged load-shedding and ageing infrastructure forcing many producers to turn to costly diesel generators and private power solutions.
Currency volatility also looms large.
With miners reliant on imported machinery and consumables, unpredictable shifts in the exchange rate have tightened margins and disrupted procurement cycles.
While the introduction of a structured currency and recent central bank interventions have brought relative stability, confidence remains fragile.
Compounding these internal pressures are global headwinds.
Prices for some of Zimbabwe’s key minerals — particularly gold and chrome — have softened in early 2025, dampening earnings and delaying reinvestment decisions.
Despite the challenges, some industry players see cause for cautious hope.
The government has renewed its commitment to fast-tracking energy partnerships with independent producers, while a policy review on mineral royalties is reportedly in the works to improve fiscal terms for investors.
However, industry leaders are projecting a cautiously optimistic outlook, buoyed by signs of stabilising production, renewed investment interest, and promising developments in PGMs.
“Prospects for the mining industry are still on the upside. All things being equal, mining companies are expected to meet their production targets and achieve the projected growth in 2025,” Kwesi said.
“The PGM exports are expected to normalise going forward as the toll processing capacity is anticipated to imrove gradually in the second half of the year.”
The past two years have seen intermittent disruptions in the PGM value chain, largely due to constrained smelting capacity and export delays.
However, a pipeline of new investments in toll processing and refinery infrastructure is set to come online from mid-year, a move that industry executives say will unlock significant value.
Global market conditions, particularly for gold and base metals, will also influence the pace and extent of recovery.
With prices for some key exports remaining depressed, the industry is under pressure to increase output while managing costs.
Nonetheless, strong fundamentals in battery minerals and sustained interest in Zimbabwe’s lithium reserves are providing a crucial buffer.
In light of these dynamics, the mining sector’s growth prospects for 2025 are considered achievable, though not guaranteed.
