South Africa’s Foreign minister, Naledi Pandor, is leading that country’s delegation to the Hague where the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will deliver the highly anticipated verdict on that country’s genocide case against Israel today.
The ruling, if granted, would probably take the form of an order to Israel to announce a ceasefire in Gaza and allow more United Nations humanitarian aid into the country.A judgment on the merits of the South African claim that Israel is committing genocide under the 1948 Geneva Convention is many years off, but the ICJ, the UN’s highest court, has powers to issue the equivalent of an interim injunction.
Israel has dismissed South Africa’s claim as blood libel, but attended the court to mount a defence, potentially making it more difficult for Israel to simply dismiss any negative verdict.
Representatives of both States laid out their legal arguments in The Hague on January 11 and 12 in hearings that were watched worldwide.The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a formal statement designed to reassure the court that Israel was acting in self-defence after the October 7 Hamas assaults.Netanyahu dismissed suggestions that Israel was seeking to expel Palestinians from Gaza.
Intent is critical to a court decision on genocide, so it would require the ICJ judges in some way to look past the statements of Netanyahu to other statements by ministers and the actions of the Israeli Defence Forces, if it is to rule there is a threat of genocide that needs prevention.
An immediate ceasefire or cessation of hostilities, is the prime provisional measure requested by South Africa. In such a scenario, nations and their governments could respond by applying pressure on Israel to comply with the order.
Provisional measures have recently been provided in cases involving the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the treatment of the Rohingya people in Myanmar.
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